Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,667,955$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,911,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,911,785.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $154,860$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,143.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,143.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,044,406$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $439,046$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{576,963.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(576,963.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $47,746$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,541.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 94.3)}}\) (asimptote \(54,541.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,773$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,453$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132,427.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.1)}}\) (asimptote \(132,427.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(43.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,944$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,768$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,770.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.4)}}\) (asimptote \(110,770.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,990$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,806.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,806.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,577$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,197$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(618 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,197.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,197.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,377$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(27.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,148.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 177.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,148.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,026$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,306$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(508 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,379.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(81,379.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,995$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(31.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,426.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,426.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,895$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $72,243$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325,095.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 188.0)}}\) (asimptote \(325,095.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,178$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,656.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 108.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,656.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,821$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,448$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(261 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,682.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,682.8\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $467$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{747.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 115.3)}}\) (asimptote \(747.3\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,347$ on 2020-08-02
