Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,667,955$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,911,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,911,785.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $154,860$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,143.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,143.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,044,406$ on 2020-08-02

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $439,046$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{576,963.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(576,963.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47,746$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,541.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 94.3)}}\) (asimptote \(54,541.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,773$ on 2020-08-02

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,453$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132,427.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.1)}}\) (asimptote \(132,427.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(43.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,944$ on 2020-08-02

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,768$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,770.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.4)}}\) (asimptote \(110,770.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,990$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,806.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,806.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,577$ on 2020-08-02

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,197$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(618 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,197.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,197.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,377$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(27.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,148.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 177.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,148.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,026$ on 2020-08-02

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,306$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(508 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,379.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(81,379.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,995$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(31.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,426.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,426.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,895$ on 2020-08-02

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,243$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325,095.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 188.0)}}\) (asimptote \(325,095.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,178$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,656.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 108.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,656.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,821$ on 2020-08-02

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,448$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(261 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,682.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,682.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $467$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{747.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 115.3)}}\) (asimptote \(747.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,347$ on 2020-08-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)